US tariff reset erodes UK’s advantage as exporters prepare for the next regime
The Trump administration has replaced the reciprocal tariffs regime that was struck down by the Supreme Court with a non-discriminatory tariff tool, shifting tariff risk to a more uncertain carve-out-driven framework. In this new regime, the UK’s prior relative advantage for non-exempt goods is no longer assured and outcomes depend on sector carve-outs, product mix and enforcement.
UK construction activity stabilises but so far without recovery
UK construction activity spent the entire year in contraction territory in 2025, with conditions deteriorating sharply in November, when firms recorded the fastest decline in new orders in five and a half years. The slump was attributed to Budget-related uncertainty and deferred investment, which subdued demand, accentuated fragile client confidence and delayed spending decisions, contributing to weak sales pipelines into the year end. Expectations have improved from depressed levels in December, but this initial stabilisation has not yet developed into a recovery.
The deteriorating financial outlook for UK universities
The financial outlook for UK universities is deteriorating, driven by domestic policy shifts, volatile international student demand patterns, real-terms declines in public funding, inflationary pressures and broader economic uncertainty.
Growing investor appetite for European defence assets is driving M&A activity
Europe is embarking on an unprecedented rearmament and readiness initiative that reverses decades of underinvestment in defence. This shift is creating an attractive decade-long opportunity for private equity to invest in new niche technologies, unique capabilities, and consolidate the continent’s fragmented mid-market sector.
Rising cybersecurity threat puts supply chain risk in focus
Cyber-attacks on UK retail, manufacturing and engineering firms have spiked in 2025. Waves of sector-focused attacks have exposed how corporate defences are struggling to keep pace with increasingly sophisticated hacker groups that are pooling resources to exploit digital infrastructure and supply chain vulnerabilities. These multiple entry points can quickly cascade into systemic risk.
Safeguarding independent schools amid accelerating costs and declining revenues
Independent schools across the UK are under growing financial strain. Spiralling costs, revenue pressures, and unsupportive policy changes are all accelerating a trend of school closures. The burdens are structural: operating costs are rising, pupil intakes are falling, revenues are constrained, and governance frameworks are often ill-equipped to navigate rapid financial change.
UK SMEs brace for a new era of fiscal tightening as global trade realigns
UK SMEs face a difficult and volatile year ahead. Companies must navigate a weakening macroeconomic environment, fragile fiscal policy, and heightened uncertainty over global trade. Although US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs – notably excluding China – global markets remain volatile, and concerns over growth, inflation, and disrupted supply chains persist. Rising UK gilt yields have added fresh pressure on public finances and borrowing costs. Collectively, these forces are dampening customer demand, squeezing margins, limiting access to finance, and delaying decisions on investment and hiring.
UK mid-market M&A: fiscal pressures and tariff uncertainty shape divergent paths
Shifting fiscal, tariff and geopolitical environments have introduced a range of uncertainties, which has blunted momentum for mid-market M&A activity in the UK. Fiscal tightening, weak productivity and policy uncertainty risk stalling deal flow, as risk-off sentiment, margin pressure, and tighter financing hit SMEs hardest. At the margins, market upheaval may create selective distressed opportunities. Markets are now at an inflection point, with domestic and international forces giving rise to equally plausible – but divergent – outcomes for UK mid-market M&A.
UK mid-market M&A: fiscal pressures and tariff uncertainty shape divergent paths
Shifting fiscal, tariff and geopolitical environments have introduced a range of uncertainties, which has blunted momentum for mid-market M&A activity in the UK. Fiscal tightening, weak productivity and policy uncertainty risk stalling deal flow, as risk-off sentiment, margin pressure, and tighter financing hit SMEs hardest. At the margins, market upheaval may create selective distressed opportunities. Markets are now at an inflection point, with domestic and international forces giving rise to equally plausible – but divergent – outcomes for UK mid-market M&A.
UK Trade: risks and opportunities in a diverging two-speed economy
The UK’s annual trade deficit narrowed by £14bn to £25.1bn in 2024, according to the latest ONS data. However, this masks a growing divergence between services and goods trade. Services exports remain a bright spot, while goods exports continue to decline, deepening the UK’s two-speed economy.
Retailers eager to optimise operations ahead of labour cost spikes
UK retailers are bracing for the cascading impact of recent Budget measures as rising wage cost pressures and weakening consumer confidence threaten to erode profits, squeeze margins and risk both store closures and possible insolvencies.
UK energy sector and supply chain partners on a bumpy road to clean energy
The transition to clean energy in the UK is a complex process, requiring a shift from fossil fuels like oil and gas to renewable and low-carbon sources such as wind, solar, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The UK government has announced a series of proposed changes to accelerate this transition, aiming to increase renewable energy generation, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and implement new regulations and taxes on the oil and gas industry.